Economic Risk Dashboard: What the Numbers Suggest as-of October 2, 2026

Here I am showing what the Economic Risk Dashboard suggests based on data as of October 2, 2026. The data is sourced from the St. Louis Fed FRED database and I used my proprietary Python program to extract and analyze the data, as show below. For the conceptual foundation of the dashboard, read my previous post where I explain the framework in more detail.

The dashboard presents a mixed but generally stable picture of the US economy. At present, the dashboard suggests an economy that is not exhibiting broad-based stress, but one in which consumer sentiment remains exceptionally weak.

Household health remains solid, with unemployment at 4.2% and no evidence of deterioration in either the six-month or twelve-month trend.

Credit markets also continue to function normally, as high-yield spreads, investment-grade spreads, commercial paper spreads, and bank lending standards remain well below stress thresholds.

The one area that warrants closer attention is consumer confidence. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains near multi-decade lows, even as other indicators remain stable.